Brier score: Difference between revisions

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Useful for assessing the [[accuracy]] of predictions that are stated as probabilities, such as  probabilities of the occurrence of [[precipitation]],    <blockquote>[[File:ams2001glos-Be20.gif|link=|center|ams2001glos-Be20]]</blockquote>    where ''fp'' is the forecasted [[probability]] for an event, and the [[verification]] term ''v'' = 1 if the event  did occur and ''v'' = 0 if it did not, for each (''i'') of the total number (''n'') forecasts.<br/> Brier scores ''S''<sub>''B''</sub> range between 0.0 for perfect forecasting and 1.0 for the worst possible forecasting.  <br/>''See'' [[skill]].
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== Brier score ==
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<div class="definition"><div class="short_definition">Useful for assessing the [[accuracy]] of predictions that are stated as probabilities, such as  probabilities of the occurrence of [[precipitation]],    <div class="display-formula"><blockquote>[[File:ams2001glos-Be20.gif|link=|center|ams2001glos-Be20]]</blockquote></div>    where ''fp'' is the forecasted [[probability]] for an event, and the [[verification]] term ''v'' = 1 if the event  did occur and ''v'' = 0 if it did not, for each (''i'') of the total number (''n'') forecasts.</div><br/> <div class="paragraph">Brier scores ''S''<sub>''B''</sub> range between 0.0 for perfect forecasting and 1.0 for the worst possible forecasting.  <br/>''See'' [[skill]].</div><br/> </div>
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Latest revision as of 12:45, 26 March 2024

Useful for assessing the accuracy of predictions that are stated as probabilities, such as probabilities of the occurrence of precipitation,
ams2001glos-Be20
where fp is the forecasted probability for an event, and the verification term v = 1 if the event did occur and v = 0 if it did not, for each (i) of the total number (n) forecasts.
Brier scores SB range between 0.0 for perfect forecasting and 1.0 for the worst possible forecasting.
See skill.
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